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Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-01T05:52Z (-4.76h, +6.43h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/12/29 06:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 11:50Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 16:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction
POS Difference: 4:50
POS Midpoint: 14:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:05

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.87
Travel Time: ~8.87 * 8:05 = 71:42

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-01T05:52Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/12/29 16:35Z

Lead Time: 45.52 hour(s)
Difference: -14.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-12-29T18:13Z

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